This is going to sound completely dick of me, but whatever. I have to do it. I simply cannot stomach another season of Jason Varitek playing 130 games and hitting .220. I can't do it.
1) If 'Tek's leadership is so invaluable and the Sox can't afford to see him go, keep him around. As the highest paid bench coach in MLB. I would have no problem with that.
2) If 'Tek's pitch calling is so outstanding, riddle me this. In 2008 the Sox pitching staff had an ERA+ of 114 and Jason Varitek appeared in 131 games. In 2005 the staff had an ERA+ of 96 and Varitek appeared in 131 games.
For the record, in 2005 Varitek had an outstanding year at the plate. His OPS+ of 122 was third on the team that year behind Manny and Papi and it would have been well higher if not for a disastrous September where he posted a frightful OPS+ of 47. In the five months prior he went 164, 137, 141, 141, 146. Amazing. All this has nothing to do with my original point though. I tell you this just so you don't think I have some sort of vendetta. Jason Varitek used to be an excellent major league player.
Back to my original point though and that is 'Tek and his pitch calling. Why would there be such a massive fluctuation between 2005 and 2008? Did Varitek get better with age or does the ERA+ of the staffs have everything to do with the pitchers and not the catcher? I'm sorry folks it's the latter. You see, the Sox staff had an ERA+ of 116 in 2004. So was '05 an "off" year? Of course not. In 2005 the only Sox pitchers that logged 150+ innings were Matt Clement, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo. Not exactly a murderer's row. Of that foursome, do you know who the best was? Tim Wakefield, who actually lead the team in wins, ERA, innings, and K's that year. So where's the love for Doug Mirabelli's pitch calling right?
Anyway, in 2004 the Sox had 5 pitchers log 150+ innings. Those five were Pedro, Schilling, D-Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, and Tim Wakefield. In 2008 they had four and those were Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and Wakefield. You see where I'm going with this? Amazingly, when the Sox have good pitchers, their staff ERA is great. When they have shit pitchers, their ERA sucks. It is really that simple. Sorry Varitek lovers, but the pitching staff won't crumble with out JV around. The pitching staff will only crumble if it sustains a bunch of injuries and puts out a bunch of fifth starters every day. It really is as simple as that. How do you prove me wrong?
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Friday, October 31, 2008
This One is For the 'Tek Backers
Posted by
Neil Williams
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3:28 PM
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I think I might be Ill
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Pricing Boy
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On The Pats...
Wow, when was the last time a Pats-Colts game was this un-anticipated? I'd say that you have to go back to the third game of the 2001 season AKA Tom Brady's first start when it seemed a foregone conclusion that the then 2-0 Colts, fresh off putting up 87 points in their first two games of the season would roll into Foxboro and decimate the Patriots. That game was supposed to be the Colts third straight rout of the year (come on, we all felt that way going in, don't be coy and say you knew they had something in Brady at that point) but instead it was the Patriots that did the routing with a 44-13 dismantling and the official start of "something" that year.
That game has nothing to do with this one, but for the better part of this decade, Pats-Colts has been the marquis NFL rivalry with nothing even in the same area code. But this year there is wholly something lacking. Whereas in the past, the week before Pats-Colts would be all stories about previous matchups between the two, Brady & Manning, etc, this year I have hardly heard a peep. Of course a banged up Colts team that has looked iffy at best all year and a Patriots team without Tom Brady has everything to do with this, but still. Pats-Colts has been THE date on the schedule for both teams and the NFL pretty much since 2003 and it is just weird having it be such a non-factor right now. Like I said earlier, you probably have to go back to 2001 to find a time when a game between these two teams was as much a non-event.
But I digress because I really do want to care about this game. And of course I do. But I know I am not the only one who has struggled to get into the Pats this year. Last year's Super Bowl left me so scarred that I needed a full on Brady redemption. I'm not saying that I needed another 16-0 team, but I needed something. I needed a reason to want to tune into the Patriots on a weekly basis. While of course I will, I'm not hunting down a sports bar to watch the game if they aren't on nationally. This may sound sacrelig to you Boston folks, but put yourself in my position. If you had the choice of spending your Sunday by yourself in a seedy sports bar somewhere in Virginia to watch the Patriots eek out an ugly victory over the Rams or do something else that did not involve dark bars and cigarette smoke at 1 in the afternoon, wouldn't you do it? You would, I promise.
And this isn't to say this all because Brady is not around either. It was exactly the same way back in 2006. Remember that team? They stumbled around through the first 10 weeks of the season, going 6-3 and then they found their stride down the stretch, finishing 12-4 and in the playoffs they were a Troy Brown first down away from making the Super Bowl. That team was pretty brutal at the start too with the Reche Caldwell/Doug Gabriel/Jabar Gaffney passing attack. They found their way though and when you look back at that season you think about them blowing that massive halftime lead to the Colts in the AFC Championship and not all the crap that happened the first 10 weeks.
So with that, I say give these guys some time. I know they aren't that fun and exciting at the moment and are kind of tough to get behind in the complete sense. But maybe, come late November or so things will start falling into place a bit more for them and all of a sudden we'll all realize that what they are doing - competing at a high level with JV talent at QB, DB, and a MASH unit at RB - is pretty impressive. Plus, if the QB and O-Line can keep sacks at a modest 2/game then maybe, just maybe we have a contender on our hands. Doubtful, but I love what BB could potentially scheme up in a one game scenario when he is the under-manned coach and team for the first time in quite some time. You gotta admit that if the Pats are on the road at TN in the second round (a likely scenario at the moment) that despite their glaring shortcomings on paper you'd have to give them more than a puncher's chance. I know I would.
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Neil Williams
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2:58 PM
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Happy Halloween
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Pricing Boy
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9:14 AM
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Thursday, October 30, 2008
Ken Macha is gone
For some unknown reason the Milwaukee decided to make Ken Macha there new manager. They apparently also interviewed Bob Brenly and Willie Randolph, but somehow they picked Macha. I personally do not care who they pick. I am thrilled though that he is leaving NESN though, he might be the dullest man alive. At one point this season Jerry Remy was sick and Macha sat in for the game and it was awful, I kept thinking that I was going to fall asleep sitting there. So goodbye Ken Macha, I was never sure why they hired you but I am thrilled that you are gone.
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Pricing Boy
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Monday, October 27, 2008
Two Sox Pitching Thoughts
1) Last winter and even up until about mid-May, if you had asked me who I would rather trade, Jon Lester or Clay Bucholz I would have answered Lester without even thinking about it. Now of course the answer would be about as definitive a 180 from those sentiments as humanly possible.
And that brings me to my point here.
Just because Clay Bucholz had a lost season and seemingly regressed does not mean that he is a failed project and a guy that should be sent out of town. Let's not forget that we're talking about a guy with only about 100 (less actually) innings pitched in the majors and who just turned 24 in August. Yes, it's easy to write him off and drop his name in every single trade rumor out there, but again I ask you to think back to a year ago and what your thoughts were on Jon Lester's future. I know that I for one pegged him as the nibbling type and a 20 pitch/inning guy who'd be lucky to get the team to the seventh inning. Furthermore I thought his ceiling would be as a number three starter in the National League. Re-read those last two sentences. They are laughable. But I was not alone with those thoughts. Remember that. And think on that before trying to find the easiest way out of town for Bucholz.
A few others things to consider about Bucholz...
* Eight of his sixteen starts came against AL East competition AKA the best division in MLB. He also had two starts against the Angels, one each against the AL Central co-champs (for all intents and purposes) the Twins and White Sox, and one against the Tigers (4th in the league in runs scored) and the Rangers (first in the league in runs scored). That's leaves just two more starts and they came against the Royals and Mariners. So while Bucholz admittedly got rocked more often than not this year, he was forced to "learn" for lack of a better word on the job and against the best competition in MLB. A tough assignment for anyone and let's look at the brightside and say it will only make him stronger in the long run.
* Heading into the 2007 and 2008 seasons, according to Baseball America, Bucholz was the Sox second and first ranked prospect respectively. He flip-flopped with Ellsbury after the 2007 season. Obviously, that's not the be all and end all, but when the most respected minor league publication out there ranks a guy as your best or second best prospect two years running then you probably want to give him every chance to prove his worth.
2) Count me as one of the many who would love to see D-Lowe make his triumphant return to Fenway in a Sox uniform. I think he would be a great addition to the back-end of the rotation and a front four of Beckett, Lester, Dice, and D-Lowe would be awesome. But now I have to play the wet blankett here.
While it cannot be overstated how great Derek Lowe was in the 2004 postseason - him and Keith Foulke were indisputably the two most important pitchers in that run - it should also be noted that he started that postseason not in the rotation. Do you know who the number three starter was at the start of the playoffs that year? Bronson Arroyo. And do you know what else? He absolutely deserved it. His ERA+ that season of 122 far outpaced Lowe's ERA+ of 90. In other words, Arroyo's ERA in 2004 was 4.04 while D-Lowe's was 5.42.
I bring this up, not to denigrate Lowe's memory but instead to point out to everybody who is expecting D-Lowe to come in to town and act as a fourth ace that that aint happening. What Lowe should bring is stability to the back of the rotation, roughly 200 innings, and an ERA around 4. In short, he'd be a highly valuable fourth starter. But at the same time, is he worth paying like an ace? If Lowe is to come back to town, my guess is it's four years and $50-$60M to get him here. Sorry, but I'm just not okay with having Derek Lowe being the highest paid pitcher on the Sox staff. Of course that does not "mean" a whole lot on the actual diamond - JD Drew is now after all their highest paid position player barring a free agent signing - but what it does mean is that the pitcher which the Sox will have the most long term time and money committed to would be Derek Lowe and not the guys they should be looking to funnell money towards, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. If Lowe will take a two or even three year contract at about $12M per, then sign me up. Any more than that though and I think it has to be a thanks but no thanks.
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Neil Williams
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9:46 PM
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Saturday, October 25, 2008
One Thought on World Series Game 3
I'll just throw it out there...
Back in 1996 when the Sox traded Jamie Moyer for Darren Bragg, who would have guessed that Moyer would be starting a World Series game 12 years later? Nobody right? Exactly. That's why gotta love baseball. Who could predict something like that!?
For whatever reason I always tie the Jamie Moyer trade to the Mike Boddicker trade in Red Sox annals. Obviously Mike Boddicker was about 187x better than Darren Bragg, but that isn't the point. What I want to throw out there is that normally when you trade away prospects that happen to be Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling for a veteran pitcher you get crushed. Not the case with Boddicker though. Boddicker was great! Plus he had his legendary hook which was not matched by a Sox SP until Aaron Sele came along. But I digress. This is just an interlude to get to my main story...
Back in 1988 before he was traded, I remeber doing a Birthday Party at Fenway and during said party the Sox bunted Brady Anderson with the bases loaded. An inexplicable move to this day. So what does that have to do with anyting? Simple, when I hear the name Brady Anderson, I don't think "drug addled 50 jack season", I think "the guy who bunted with the bases loaded at my birthday party back in the day". Furthermore, whenever I see the bases loaded with a weak hitter at the plate I hearken back to that moment. Funny how those things work right.
Three other fun Neil Williams Fenway Park Facts:
1) I saw Tim Naerhing's first MLB home run
2) I saw Andre Dawson's 400th career home run
3) This is the biggy...I saw Sammy Sosa's first career home run off of Roger Clemens. It landed in the screen. This is of course back when he was a scrawny Rangers outfielder. Ironically, I am more proud of seeing Timmy Naerhing's first career HR, but whatever.
Do you know what depresses me though? Is that now that Fenway is all corporated out, I doubt kids growing up today will have memories like I had at Fenway growing up. That's a different story though, even if it does make me sad. Maybe another time.
Williams out.
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Neil Williams
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