Cassell/Vrabel Trade Analysis

...And now we learn that for Cassell and Vrabel came "only" a second round pick. Upon first glance that seems a little light. But think about it a second before you have cause to flip out.

1) You know that Belichek scoured the trade landscape and deemed that a) this was probably the best they could get and b) that he absolutely could not risk being "stuck" with Cassell after the draft and free agent period. The insurance plan is great, but for $30mil total at the QB position? Yikes.

2) The idea that they could move him in training camp once Brady proved to be okay is a little far-fetched seeing as it is very tough for any QB to just hop right into another team's system and seemlessly fit himself in. Look at what happened with Favre in New York last year. Favre never seemed totally at ease in that system and the coaching staff never seemed totally at ease with him. In this case it was in both parties best interest to make a deal sooner rather than later.

3) Even though a first round pick would have seemed worlds more exciting than a second round pick, the fact is that they have a VERY early second round pick now and the talent drop-off from somewhere in the late teens or 20's to 34 should not be massive. What makes this all the more appealing to Belichek I am sure is that he feels he can get what he perceives to be first round talent at the cost of a second rounder.

4) Speaking of that, do you realize that if they got the Chiefs first round pick, the cap hit and salary that they would need to take on with that draft pick would be pretty close to the cap hit they would take with Cassell? Last year, the third pick in the draft, Matt Ryan received a 6 year $72M contract with almost $35M gauaranteed. Figuring that that number would go up some this year, the difference in salaries would be almost a wash. Conversely, Devin Thomas, the 34th pick in the draft signed a 4 year, roughly $5M contract. Yes, Thomas has been a bust to date (a little used WR for the Redskins) but first off there is never a gaurantee with early first rounders either and secondly you can always find talent in the second round. Last year a few second round standouts included the Bears Matt Forte and Philly's Desean Jackson, both drafted in the 40's. All of this is a long way of saying that the Pats give themselves tons more financial freedom by gaining a second rounder instead of a high first.

5) With the motherload of first day picks the Pats have (currently 1 first, 3 seconds, and 1 and probably two thirds when the Asante compensation pick is awarded) isn't it possible that they need to keep a little extra cap room on hand to sign all these guys and a few more free agents? Don't you think there could be another free agent maneuver up their sleeve? I've heard the Julius Peppers rumors which I don't buy, but with the Cassell/Vrabel move they did clear about $19M from their cap. Hmmmmm.....

In conclusion, it may seem like kind of a weak haul to only get an early second rounder for Vrabel and Cassell, but in the end I truly think that this will work out for the best both with the pick they received in return and the financial flexibility which they have now granted themselves. Read more!

Now it makes sense

So everyone was trying to figure out why the Patriots traded Mike Vrabel. Well, we just found out. Several outlets are reporting that Matt Cassell has just been traded to the Chiefs as well. This is really new information, so noone knows what the Patriots got in return just yet. I would guess it has to be a first rounder for Cassell, and probably a third rounder for Vrabel.

Does this make sense? Yes it does. From the Chiefs standpoint, the got a veteran leader for their defense and they got a franchise quarterback that is far more of a sure thing than Sanchez which was really their only option in the draft.

For the Patriots, they did what they do, gather picks. They moved out a guy in Vrabel whom they were not going to sign next year and had a cap number in the 4 million range, and they got some value for him. With Cassell, well, they had to trade him, and hopefully we are looking at a first rounder. Two picks in the first round...the possibilities.

As for Cassell, he should just be thanking the god of skinny punks that he did not end up in Detroit.
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Vrabel Deal

Ironic how things work as on the same day a notorious malcontent who has never won anything in his life officially inks with one team, another team ships out a popular, team first guy who played a major part in three championships and a fourth near championship. As far as perception goes, you could not get more diametrically opposed than Stephon Marbury and Mike Vrabel. I hate to play the card, but it's almost like today was designed to give the old white guard of the mainstream Boston sports media a collective head explosion. How do you really expect the Dan Shaugnessey's of the world (and for the record I LIKE Shaugnessey's stuff unlike many) to grapple with the concept of bringing in a troubled and controversial black athlete, while a classy, beloved, and good white one gets sent away? I really wonder about this. I'm not calling anybody racist, but it will be interesting to monitor the reactions. Although to be fair, I think the combination of the recent "the goal is to win rings" dictums by all three major ownership groups in town and the successes of the Dillon and Moss experiences have calmed everybody from the "oh the humanity!" clamorings that came after the Moss trade. Now, we all kind of expect this stuff from all of our teams and assume it will work.

As for me, well I'm already on record as being pro-Starbury and even before knowing the return they get for Vrabel, I am going to hop on the pro-Vrabel trade bandwagon too. They NEED to get younger at linebacker and by jettisoning Vrabel they are forcing their own hands. Next stop is to convince Teddy Bruschi that maybe the corporate speaker circuit is his best bet and oh yeah, he always is a more than welcome presence around Foxboro. This isn't a dog on either Vrabel or Bruschi, two of my favorite Patriots of the Championship years. Bruschi's man-strip of Edge James in the 2005 AFC Championship Game is still one of the most badass plays I have EVER seen. And we all know about Vrabel's key contributions to the goalline offense in addition to the D. These are two great players that should be celebrated, but as fans who want to see the team best positioned to win Super Bowl #4 I think we all need to acknowledge it's best for both parties to just move on. Youth is what the D needs at this moment and this move certainly forces this issue.

Regarding the matter of compensation (right now it's an undisclosed draft choice) I think if they can get a first day pick (3rd I see as best case scenario) in exchange for him then super. Even a 4th would not be the end of the world. Plus they clear cap space, another bonus. Thing is though, I am one of the people who thinks that this trade is just step one in a multi-step deal which will land Cassell in KC. Seems like the skids are somehow getting greased here and if that is the case then I see this getting a whole lot more interesting. Read more!

Vrabel a Chief???

The Boston Globe is reporting that Mike Vrabel is in Kansas City taking a physical that would complete a trade...Not sure what we would get in return. I hope that it is either Larry Johnson or Tony Gonzales. I would imagine that one of them would have to be included in the deal because they both want out of KC, and I don't see Vrabel fetching a high draft pick. I can see why KC would want Vrabel, he could be THE leader of that defense, and bring some of the Patriots work ethic to KC, which you know that Pioli wants to instill there. I am just not sure I see why the Patriots would want to trade him. He is still playing hard, and is productive, and never complains.

Interesting development for sure.....

More to come


-Ben Read more!

Freddie T and Manny

Three very quick thoughts for Friday morning....

1) I love the Fred Taylor imminent signing by the Pats. Love it! And this is coming from a guy who has said about 185 times over the past few months that their sole focuses in free agency and the draft should be defense, defense, defense. So why the love for Taylor?

Assuming the money is right (ie relatively low cost and a deal where they can basically go year-to-year with him) you get a former Pro Bowl caliber player with something left in the tank to work into the RB platoon. Yes he is coming off of a career low in yards-per-carry (3.9) but last year the entire Jags running game was a mess. The two years prior to that he averaged 5.0 and 5.4 YPC respectively. My guess is that next year he falls somewhere in the 4.5 YPC range which I will take anytime.

So, where does he fit in in the Maroney/Faulk/Morris/Jordan group? I am not sure. To me it's a no-brainer that they keep Faulk around and I'd imagine Maroney is safe too. That seems kind of odd given his somewhat checkered injury/production past, but he was a first round pick and he has shown flashes so it probably behooves the team to give him one more shot at proving his NFL worth. That leaves Morris, Jordan, or maybe both as the likely victims here. If I had to guess, I'd honestly say it would be Sammy Morris because as much as I like what he has done in his tenure here (when he's been healthy), he too has had trouble staying on the field and his game is more of a match towards Taylor's. This is to say that both Taylor and Morris are more traditional running backs while Lamont Jordan is more of the bruiser who is adept in the passing game. Because of that, I say Morris is the one to go even if other logic and maybe even popular opinion will reside in begrudgingly cutting Jordan or maybe even casting off Maroney.

2) Your first reaction to the news that Manny just nixed the Dodgers 2 year/$45M offer with the second year, a player option at $20M is that Manny is an idiot because nobody else is bidding on him. But then you actually look at HOW the Dodgers were going to pay him (only $10M of that actually coming next year, the rest deferred) and I guess it makes a bit more sense. And then your brain really starts churning and you begin to buy in more and more to those outside thoughts that everybody has, which say the Yankees are going to swoop in and sign him to a massive one or two year deal and that is why he said no.

Right now, who knows the real reason he passed, but if sometime on Saturday you see an ESPNEWS flash claiming that Manny just inked a 1 year, $30M offer with the Yankees, you would not be that shocked would you?

Oh, and in case you were wondering, Manny played 130 games in 2006 and 133 games in 2007, which were the last two years he was NOT playing for a contract. This is important to me simply because if you sign a soon to be 37 year old Manny to any type of contract this year, chances are you are getting more of the 130 or so game a year player as opposed to the 153 game a year player he was last year. This is not really a knock on Manny, people are going to be more injury prone as they age now that they can't just shoot themselves up with HGH so I offer this as something substantial that must be thought on when considering tossing heaps of cash at Mr. Manny.

ps.....Love the new logo Read more!

Friday

So it is Friday, I haven't really written much this week my nights have been taken up by some meetings that I had to go to and family coming over for dinner, and of course me working on the lovely new logo at the top of the page. I thought after a year it was time for us to switch it up a bit, if all goes as plan hopefully we will also have a new website design soon to but that is still in it's planning stages.

- Why did the Redskins pay $100 million dollars for Albert Haynesworth? He is injury prone, he is a little bit crazy, and has only played well the last two years when he had a contract on the line. Once again the Skins are going to overspend and will not win.

- The Bruins have seemingly broken out of there slump at this point. Two wins in the last two games, 12 goals, and only 1 goals against. Hopefully they can keep playing strong until we get to the post season.

- The games portion of spring training has started for the Sox, I have watched a couple innings so far. It was so nice on Wednesday to not have to here Jerry Remy's voice while watching NESN. I don't know where he was but as long as they dont replace him with Ken Macha I would be thrilled if he was gone forever.

- Tom Brady finally got married. I really don't care, call me when he is throwing the ball in mini camp.

-Finally, how stupid is Manny? There is no one else who wants him, he shoudl have signed on the dotted line otherwise he is going to spend the year wondering around with nothing to do. Read more!

The All-Inclusive AL East Preview

In lieu of a big baseball preview like I did last year, I am going to do it in parts this year. Today, I'm going to take a look at the AL East because I am guessing that is what you will be most interested in. From there, I'll do some other quick previews of non-AL East/Red Sox stuff. For now though, we keep it local.

AL East

The Bottom Tier

From where I sit, Baltimore is clearly the worst team in this division. "Worst" is a relative term however because I really don't think they are that bad. Yes, their pitching will probably be pretty bad as is bound to happen when Jeremy Guthrie looks like your opening day starter, but on the flip side their offense should again be pretty good. Did you realize that their offense scored just seven fewer runs than the Yankees did last year and eight more than the AL Champion Rays? Exactly. They are a good offensive squad. Maybe Aubrey Huff won't post another .912 OPS this year, but they still house a great top of the order hitter/speedster in Brian Roberts and also probably the AL's most underrated hitter in Nick Markakis.

Markakis is just 25 years old and has seen both his OBP and slugging percentage increase each year since he arrived to the majors in 2006. Fantasy nerds already are well aware of him, but for the rest of you, don't be surprised by a .320/.420/25/110 year from him. In other words, he is what JD Drew could be if he stayed healthy and consistent from April through October.

One other little thing I want to point out with the Orioles is Adam Jones. Jones was the centerpiece of the Erik Bedard trade which occurred before last season. Last year he got off to a slow start and then picked up in the middle of the season before being slowed again with an injury in August. When he went well though, he went really, really well and a 20/20 season from him should not be out of the question. So, in short the Orioles have a good amount of talent on offense, but nothing in the pitching department meaning they will be one of those teams that can beat any team in any series at any time or could be a candidate to get swept and blown out if their bats go silent. Think of the Tigers last year and pencil them in for 75 wins or so and some late season friskiness.

The other bottom tier team in the division has to be Blue Jays. I use the "bottom tier" team loosely as I fully expect the Blue Jays to win about 85 games or so and give the Red Sox all kinds of fits. With that being said, the Blue Jays could very well take a major step back and supplant the Orioles as the division's fifth place team. Why?

For starters, it's their starters. You know Roy Halladay will be a horse, win around 20 with an ERA in the low 3s and be close to the top in the AL in innings pitched. After him there are a ton of questions. Their best returning pitcher Dustin McGowan could miss the season. Their second best returning pitcher, Shaun Marcum is in the same boat. And lest we forget, they lost AJ Burnett. What this all means is that the potential for some sort of an abyss after Roy Halladay is quite strong.

Their offense meanwhile won't be anything special either. Yes they have a budding star in Alex Rios but after him you really only need to worry about Vernon Wells, and he seemingly only shows up to play the Sox. Therefore, with the Jays I say I think they can win 85 or so because they always seem to (they've averaged 81 wins/year over the last 5 years and 85 over the past 3) but by the same token if they fall back to the 70 or so win range I really would not be too shocked either.

Final on the Record Prediction:

5. Orioles (74-88)

4. Blue Jays (83-79)

The Big Boys

Without really stopping and devoting a ton of thought to the matter, you would probably rate the Big Three in the AL East as New York, Boston, Tampa Bay. If I were to ask you for a reason, you may say something like, "well the Yankees signed every free agent under the sun this winter, the Red Sox are the Red Sox, and the Rays were probably a bit of a fluke last year". I would respond to you, "fair enough, but I'd actually flip your order and use that as mine".

3) Yankees

Biggest Strength

Rotation. Say what you will about AJ Burnett and how he could be Jaret Wright 2.0 or how CC Sabathia is vying to be the first pitcher in history that outweighs an average NFL offensive lineman but Burnett struck out more than a batter an inning last year in 221.1 IP and CC is just one season removed from winning an AL Cy Young. Oh, and Chien Mien Wang averaged 210 innings and 19 wins in 2006-07 before getting hurt in a fluke injury last year. Add in the high upside young guy (Joba) and the old stalwart (Pettitte) and you have pretty nice looking front 5. The only real question here however is can they do it in October. Sabathia and Wang both have awful postseason track records and Burnett has never thrown a postseason inning. This could be a great rotation from April through September but if it falters in October, will anybody remember a few great starts in July or August? Not in New York.

Biggest Weakness

Their defense, especially up the middle figures to be pretty bad. Jeter's lack of range has been well documented, Cano is known as an adventure at second, and it still remains to be seen if Posada can actually throw from behind the plate to second. Their outfield defense might be average, but if teams can run rampant on Posada and are able to eek out a few extra hits thanks to the Jeter/Cano tag-team it could turn into a semi-big problem. Remember that the 2004 Sox did not really take off until they replaced Nomar with the OC and a big reason for that - beyond the clubhouse issues - was that Nomar was just brutal with the glove. Never underestimate how much bad defense can submarine a good team.

Hidden Weakness

Last year the Yankees finished 7th in the AL in runs scored. This year, while they added Mark Teixeira they did lose Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi. Those two combined for a little over 1200 plate appearances and hit 52 home runs with a .363 OBP. Yes, Teixeira will make up a chunk of that, but not all of it. The rest will fall on the shoulders of Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher. Maybe they are up to the task and maybe they are not, but even with a huge ticket addition, getting back to the top 3 or so in the AL in runs scored may be a tougher task than it seems.

Final Thoughts

The Yankees could probably win 100. They could also win a bit less than that. Like the Red Sox, they are an aging/veteran team with few "upside" guys AKA guys who potentially could perform better than anticipated. Of course the flip side to that is that they have a ton of really good players so even without a lot of upside, they still are looking pretty good. In the end though, my main reason for placing them in the three hole of this group is that I feel their defensive limitations plus an offense that may not be as good as anticipated are the largest of the aggregate concerns of this group of three. That being said, if everything goes right and they do find some upside guys, they could definitely take the division and maybe do it with relative ease.

2) Red Sox

I'm going to motor through this because I have already said countless times my thoughts on them.

Biggest Strength

The rotation and bullpen are loaded. Their three top starters are all under 30, they have a good fifth starter type in Wakefield, and it seems as if they could receive good to great contributions from the Penny/Smoltz combo. Sure it would be nice if Dice learned how to throw at least six innings a start, but that kind of is what it is. There is nothing worse than watching a Dice-K start (...and doesn't that just suck, wasn't one of the main attractions of bringing him on board how FUN it would be to watch him work??) and that probably won't change.

What else excites me about the staff is that not only do they have the established veterans mentioned above, they also have Michael Bowden, Clay Bucholz, and maybe even Justin Masterson (if they shift him from the pen). This entire group can potentially contribute in a pleasantly surprising type of way assuming the inevitable missed starts of all the starters at some point or another during the season. This is a huge advantage to have and as fun as it may have been, this means we don't have to worry about the David Pauleys of the world getting thrust into a few meaningful games down the road.

Oh yeah, and yes I think the bullpen should be good as well. Manny Delcarmen is still a major enigma but between Ramon Ramirez, Saito, Masterson, Okajima, and of course Papelbon I think things from the seventh inning on should be in good hands. Never underestimate the power of a good to great bullpen because if you can essentially play six or seven inning games with good starters at the front end, that is a HUGE advantage.

On a more minor note, the defense is shaping up to be pretty good and that should by no means be underrated.

Biggest Weakness

They are still a bat short. This has not changed. Right now, you know roughly what you are going to get from Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, and that is about it. Beyond that you could have some pleasant surprises (bounce back year from Papi, emergence of Ellsbury and Lowrie, 145 good games from JD Drew, a 20/100 campaign from Mike Lowell, mediocre production from the catcher position) or you could have a lot of awful surprises (pretty much the exact opposite of everything previously stated). Logic dictates that it will probably end up in the middle somewhere, but it is still always a bit nerve-wracking going into a season with that many Peter Gammons specials AKA, "IF.....can do....., and IF....can do....., THEN they can win the World Series".

Final Thoughts

I put the Sox number two here under the impression that their staff will be as good as anticipated and their lineup will be slightly better than I think it will be. If either of these do not live up to that billing then they easily drop to third and probably win "only" 88 games or so.

1) Rays

Biggest Strength

Let's see, their best offensive players (Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria) all either missed sizable time due to or played through injuries during good chunks of the year. Probably their most talented pitcher, Scott Kazmir also battled injuries and it took future Josh Beckett, Matt Garza a couple of months to figure out how good he really was. Oh, and they did not have phenom David Price until September. Long story short, there is actually a TON of room for improvement for the team who won the division last year.

And did I mention that they acquired via free agency and trade, Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce to fill their biggest offensive weak spot (DH/RF). Last year, Joyce and Burrell combined for 45 home runs and a .360 OBP in 911 plate appearances. If you figure 1,100 plate appearances for them that equates to 54 homers for this year. Last year they had a platoon of Eric Hinske, Gabe Kross, and Cliff Floyd for these spots who in 1,044 plate appearances posted a .333 OBP with 44 home runs. Obviously, the Burrell/Joyce combo is a marked improvement making the Rays offensive ceiling for this year all the higher.

Biggest Weakness

On paper, this is their bullpen. Yes, they had a shutdown bullpen last year, but in 2007 it was awful. As so happens with bullpens, one year a 'pen can be great and the next it can be awful. If that sounds totally trivial well that is because it is. Bullpens fluctuate like crazy so assuming that a bullpen that was awful one year then good again the next will continue to be good is a risky proposition. And that doesn't even mention the attrition rate in relievers who always seem to blow out their elbows. Bottom line, I think the Rays are about as balanced a squad as you will find in baseball as we head into the season and if they potentially have one slight armor chink, it's the bullpen.

And then there are these two side thoughts:

1) How do they play with expectations? It's a lot tougher when you are supposed to be good then when you come up from the bottom. Excuses that may have worked in the past will not work in the present. Still, this seems like a pretty solid bunch and I doubt that this will be an issue. You never know though.

2) Starting in 2000, only 4 times has a team that played in the World Series the year before made it back even as far as it's league's Championship Series the following year. That is win or lose in the WS folks. Pretty crazy isn't it. In case you are wondering, those teams were the 2001 Yankees (previous WS winner, lost in WS), 2004 Yankees (previous WS loser, lost in ALCS), 2005 Cardinals (previous WS loser, lost in NLCS), and 2008 Red Sox (previous WS winner, lost in ALCS). Anyway, the odds are stacked highly against them in this regard, mainly because playing 180 or so games over 7 months can wreak havoc on a pitching staff. If any team can overcome this, I'd think it would be a young bunch like the Rays, but it certainly will not be easy.

Final Thoughts

I think this is the best team in baseball. In any other division I would be predicting triple-digit victories for them. In the AL East, I say 98 and the division crown.

So that is that. This turned out to be way longer than I planned - not to mention that it took me way longer to put it together - so I hope you at least found it interesting and informative.

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